My thoughts on Ukraine
Like you, I watch the invasion of Ukraine with shock, anger, and sadness. I feel powerless. I've been reading and conversing with colleagues who have education and experience in this region and whose opinions I value to mature my own thinking and make sense of the senseless. I've had many friends and family ask for my thoughts on what they are witnessing. I offer these to inform your own thinking and for mature debate. I do not confess to having this right. Tell me where I am off. Help me round out my own thinking. This geopolitical situation is wicked and complex and expands far beyond the current borders of Ukraine. I wrote this for you, my audience, not a Washington think tank.
Militarily
On the military front, the warrior in me wants to see the full dominance of the U.S. military, shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainians sending Russian forces (or what is left of them) back over the border with a bloody nose. After all, what do we stand for as a world power? I don't like this sideline stuff. And how good is the Russian military? So far they look tactically and strategically inept. It would be a dream come true for me as a battlefield commander to see a 40-mile long convoy headed my way. I'd sit back in my command post, light a cigar and watch the fireworks. But the mature, educated, military professional in me knows better. Any direct involvement by the U.S. puts us at war with Russia, a nuclear power, and wars escalate. That would (or should) require a congressional declaration of war and for us to assemble a coalition of nations including most, if not all of the 30 countries in NATO. Going it alone in this era does not work and perhaps this is the war we should support but not meddle with.
What are the American people willing to send their sons and daughters to fight for? It is a question worth asking, especially of yourself. Is it a lower price of gasoline? Is it really to be freedom's guardian? How would we define end state? Without question, we could send Russian forces packing, but what next? How would we stabilize the unstable and create a greater peace? That is why a nation goes to war in the first place. We could jump into the ring with relative ease but how would we define victory? Could we contain the war in Ukraine or would we be forced to cross the border into Russia? At what point could we withdraw U.S. forces? All of these questions must be answered and clear, attainable objectives established before we commit a single service member.
Putin
Many experts depict Vladimir Putin as isolated, acting on his own, and listening to no one. In layman's terms, his team was horribly defeated (fall and subsequent break up of the Soviet Union, Circa 1991). He is bitter about that, wants to reassemble as much of it as he can, and win a championship - surpassing the West as the world power. "You have an autocrat in power—or even now a despot—making decisions completely by himself," so states Russia expert Stephen Kotkin in a recent article in The New Yorker magazine. Putin and his autocratic friend Xi Jinping, believe the Western model of democracy is a failed one, where our freedoms and our internal political divide lead to ultimate ruin. They also don't see Ukraine and Taiwan as separate, independent nation states, no matter what progress those countries have made. There is so much more context to this but these facts lie at the core of their thoughts and actions.
While I do not see Putin as suicidal, I think it is irresponsible to believe he wouldn't cross the nuclear threshold. I could envision a scenario where he was out of options, squeezed so hard, in poor health, where he chose a last resort option. I don't want to be alarmist but it is worth stating. We would have no choice but to respond. A nuclear option leads to a concept called Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) meaning total annihilation for both sides. There are no winners in that scenario.
Putin bit off more than he can chew in my assessment. He and his country have a real and lasting problem. If Putin had any friends or people who saw him below the threshold of a murderer and a war criminal, that seems to have changed. Perhaps Putin was misled by the modernization of his military following its struggles in Chechnya and Georgia and romanced by his success in annexing Crimea, which he did in short order without firing a shot. Crimea is a campaign worthy of study by any modern military and policy-maker.
Putin underestimated the resilience and patriotism of the Ukrainians, the leadership of their once failing president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the reaction of NATO and the world. Thomas Friedman wrote a great opinion piece in the New York Times, "The Cancellation of Mother Russia is Underway." It illustrates the economic and technological power that private, global companies wield in the connected world. NATO is awakened, galvanized, and it's the team to join given Russian aggression. There is renewed motivation for Finland and Sweden, two economically and militarily powerful countries, among others, to seek membership. This is exactly the opposite of what Putin wanted but he now has it and maybe more of it in the future.
What should the United States do?
While it is hard to remain on the sidelines as lives and treasure are lost, I believe we need to be measured, deliberate, and comprehensive in our approach. Now is not the time for rash decisions, overreaction, and mostly, as General H.R. McMaster states in his book, "Battlegrounds," strategic narcissism: the tendency to view the world only in relation to the United States and to assume that the future course of events depends primarily on U.S. decisions or plans. We must be balanced across all elements of U.S. National Power - Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic or DIME. Whether you agree or disagree with our approach, there has been effort across the D, M, and E, the efficacy of which remains to be seen. I'm not seeing our efforts in the I and it is critically important. As I wrote in my Afghanistan article, I'd like to see the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State equivalent for Information and Economics, especially Information. Just look at the power of President Zelensky's words and actions. Information is vitally important and it alone needs a whole-of -government approach. This includes cyber.
Whether you know it or not, there is already a 40-mile long convoy in our own country. Both the Russians and China crossed our border long ago with cyber attacks and misinformation to fuel internal division and de-legitimize our democratic processes and institutions. We are not paying enough attention, perhaps because of our half-sighted view of war.
We as a country, are not sufficiently alarmed until we see the smoke billowing out of a city, refugees on the march, or bloody, beaten, and dead bodies on our phones or TVs. Russia and China know better than to face us conventionally - ship on ship, jet on jet, soldier on soldier. While the conventional threat from these two countries remains real and demands our preparation, Russia and China prefer we keep our attention on the buildup and use of their military might while ignoring the activity below this threshold - information and cyber where they do battle with us everyday. I've seen how our adversaries used information and cyber against us with success and I believe we ought to meet and defeat that threat. While there is some activity in the classified sphere, it is not as obvious or effective as what Russia and China are doing to us and our allies. Russia's interference with our elections and China's theft of our technology are evidence of our failures. It is time we leverage more tools in our DIME toolbox than just the hammer.
What can we citizens do?
I haven't begun to build a bomb shelter in my yard, stock up on weapons, or collect canned goods. Perhaps I'm being naive. I believe it is what I refuse to do which matters most, and that is refusing to fuel our political polarization. If you cannot pick up a weapon and join the fight, which is 99% of us, then use personal discipline instead. Showing your support for Ukraine and giving your money to organizations which are helping their country are worthy causes, but the most important thing you can do, your way to joint the fight, is to stop feeding political partisanship. Stop electing people who care only about gathering dirt on their opponent and sandbagging the other party. It is hard but so is war and this is the war we have been given, not the one most of us want.
Don't think for a second that your Tweet, post, like, or even emoji is not being watched and exploited by an adversary like Russia or China - by some individual, not a battle group, far from view, funded by their government, armed with a laptop instead of a tank or a rifle. Russia and China relish our internal division and believe, with good reason and historical precedent, it will lead to our eventual demise. Russia attempted to bring us down during the civil rights protests of the 1960s, and they are at it again, only this time with better, more discreet weapons which can reach far more of us. This may seem unrelated to Ukraine but it is not. It is Putin's concurrent war - being waged in a different way, here on our land and it should awaken us. Don't take the bait.
The mainstream media has taken the bait - hook, line and sinker. Nothing these days, not even toilet paper is safe from being politicized where the current administration is blamed and the previous lauded for its efforts or vice versa. Every presidential administration in our lifetime bears some responsibility for what is happening in Ukraine - every one. Each one suffered from some level of strategic narcissism. What matters most is not whose fault it is, but how we learn and grow and defend ourselves and our allies going forward - how we cure ourselves of this narcissism and how we overcome our internal division which China and Russia celebrate and exploit - how we balance our civil liberties with the security we require. You don't need a weapon, you have the ballot. You, the individual, have the power. You always have.
I do watch the mainstream news but I don't consume it. And I question the education, background, and experience of those telling me what is going on and why. I do catch myself watching and listening to those I agree with, but I try hard to hear the opinions and beliefs of others, to balance my thinking.
The best option for Ukraine and the numerous countries who stand against this aggression is to make this painful for Putin, his country, his supporters, and his military. Let this be Russia's Afghanistan part II, their Achilles Heel. Let it show the world that this was a bad move, that this type of aggression will not be tolerated and will come at great cost to the aggressor. Yes, of course, there should be a no-fly zone, but we cannot do it. It would be identical to placing boots on the ground. Sending weapons and money Amazon-style, albeit late, should be pursued, but it is a measure of performance, not of effectiveness. Just because we've sent it (American cash and pallets of weapons) does not mean the war is won. Where would the money go and how would it be used to gain a greater peace? Weapons, especially the more sophisticated ones like MIG-29 jets and Javelins require weeks, even months of training and come with a maintenance and logistics tail even our own military is challenged to keep pace with. Sanctions - yes, but again, they should be part of a comprehensive campaign leveraging all of our collective power - public and private to turn the tide. Combat requires constant innovation and adaptation - the enemy gets a vote. Our approach and our policies should reflect that.
It is personally painful to stand by and watch as people are killed and cities are leveled but the alternative, our direct military involvement, would lead to even greater carnage. I'm cheering for the Ukrainians and praying for their country and its people. I'm boycotting the American polarization Russia and China so desperately want. Ukraine and its people may be less advanced, less wealthy, and less fortunate than we Americans, but their unity and patriotism should be an awakening - a lesson for us and our allies. We don't need to brew Molotov cocktails or strap on body armor, we just need to come together. I'll continue to educate myself, engage in mature debate and cast my vote. Get up-close and personal with those you disagree with. Keep the discussions at the coffee shop or kitchen table. Use your mouth, your vote, and not your keyboard. Join me in the fight.
Colonel Rob Campbell
Rob Campbell